May 6: Aftermath

I admit, initially I was disappointed too.

I was disappointed that we didn't manage to make that leap of faith, into the unknown and a probably drastically different future. It was such a chance to change things for the better.

Now, the People's Alliance/Pakatan Rakyat not only failed to take government, they lost a state too, and did not manage to retake Perak which they did win last election (although complicated matters followed...). A bad, bad day for the opposition and its supporters, then?

No. Not really.


While not the dramatic wave that was 2008, this is an election that will have an equally great impact on the future.

Before talking about the future, though, it is probably better that I first clear up why I believe that the results are far from the disappointment that many make them out to be.

1) Pakatan Rakyat was always the underdog.

Remember, there's a reason why something or someone is called an underdog. It's because from the get go, PR has been the party with smaller chances of winning. Even if you take out the alleged voter fraud, voter buying and all the other powers that the incumbent has at its disposal, it remains that PR is a relatively new coalition that is struggling to break the inertia and status quo that has been in place since 1957. If they had won this round, it would have been nothing short of a miracle; and noting that while there was a wave of anti-establishment, it was not as widespread or forceful as the ones seen in the Arab Spring, for example (and frankly, that's a good thing, for the last thing we want is the pillars of government in the country to crumble absolutely).

2) The balance continues to tip.

Pakatan Rakyat did not achieve the change of the government that they were so hoping for. At the same time, on the other side of the political divide, Barisan Nasional didn't achieve their stated goal of regaining two-thirds majority either. Far from it: The opposition received a net gain of 7 seats, to hold 40% of parliament at their side. Besides having power being further tilted against their favour, BN's long belief of the 'pendulum effect' - meaning that every time the opposition makes gains, the next election would reverse those gains - is now void. That's a historic first for Malaysia, thus showing that BN can no longer rely on "safe deposits" and "proven methods" to win elections. A strong opposition, meanwhile, has found its roots, and will be the foundation for true debate and discourse on Malaysia's future.

Speaking about historic firsts...


3) For the first time ever, more people have voted for the opposition.

I'm not sure why more people are not talking about this. I suspect it's either the continued bitter disappointment stemming from last night's (or this morning's) results, or the fact that it's not as important in the context of forming a government.

Nevertheless, I find this really important. At no other time in history has the government not received the mandate by popular vote. Currently, the vote count stands at 49% 46% BN, 50% PR. Think about it for a second. It proves that now, for the first time since independence, more people support the opposition than the government. While BN has still managed to use the 'first-past-the-post' system to its advantage and clung on to power, I don't doubt that there are many within the party taking nervous glances at the numbers. Having a majority of people against you, no matter how small, is never good for your future.


4) To be frank: Do we really want Pakatan Rakyat to form the government just yet?

Hold on, hold on. Don't get your pitchforks out just yet.

Sure, many among us are sick and tired of the ruling government, and for good reason. People are hungry for change and it shows.

At the same time though, think about this: like mentioned earlier, PR is a really young coalition. Heck, it's not even a "real" coalition yet! It's not registered, for one, and more importantly, it's a loose string of organisations with rather different ideologies - specifically, the Democratic Action Party (DAP) and the Pan-Islamic Party (PAS). In fact, just before the election I was going to write a post expressing my worries about the consequences of putting both in power together, until I ran out of time. But the concern remains, and I  believe it's valid. Furthermore, easy vote-grabbing policies that formed a part of their manifesto, like increasing subsidies, smacks of immaturity and not very responsible governance.

PR needs to work out their differences, find out how to work out common ground as a true coalition, and most importantly mature over the next few years. At the same time, Malaysia gets to mature at a good pace, rather than being rocked by a sudden transition to a government that has too many people squabbling over simple issues at the top.


It's really not that bad overall. We missed the boat, yes, but it comes back every four to five years, and it'll keep coming. And I'm confident that, Malaysians will get there.

Now, on the immediate future.

On the opposition's side, it's not going to change much. They won some (many more state seats, a good number of parliament seats) and lost some (Kedah). They'll continue to nag the government and force the latter not to be complacent, which is good, and will make for more popcorn-worthy parliament sessions.

It's quite different on BN's side. A few of their leaders have crumbled badly, with minority parties badly hit. Already, Mr (I refuse to use royal titles here) Chua Soi Lek has tweeted that MCA will not take up any government posts, and it's unlikely Gerakan will either. East Malaysia parties will likely retain the same power they have had before, which is to say, not very much, but enough to keep them happy.

UMNO, doing relatively well this time round, will find that it no longer needs the other parties - save the East Malaysia ones - very much, and will start to take things into its own hands. Power within BN and the government will be tilted even more towards UMNO, and the coalition will revolve around the party more than it ever has before. Soon the image of BN in people's minds will be not so much about UMNO/MCA/MIC like previously, but just simply UMNO.

This will pave way for a gradual centralisation of Malay political power at the top (I usually don't like to speak in terms of race, but BN being a race-based party it is necessary to). Already, the race card has been pulled - many UMNO chiefs, including Prime Minister Najib himself, have publicly lamented the "Chinese Tsunami" for being the main cause of their election losses.

This could be very bad news for minorities nationwide. On the flip side, though, with Pakatan Rakyat even stronger this time round, it is unlikely that much will be done to intimidate minorities, unlike before (like, say, the 1960s).

I also must comment on the "Chinese tsunami" quotes; in one word, wrong.

While the ethnic Chinese minority have proved to being the most vocal and strongest in terms of political backing for the opposition, there have been waves among Malay voters, too. It would have quite simply been impossible for PR to achieve these results by relying on one ethnic group alone, to say the least.

No, what we're seeing is a growing disparity between voters of the urban and rural areas. Those of the former are now voting largely in the favour of the opposition, and the other way round for the latter. While I notice many PR supporters being upset of rural voters because of this, I can understand why. See, PR campaigned on national issues - things like corruption, education, and other changes to the system. Urban voters, mostly middle class, care about these issues because 1) it affects them, and 2) they have the luxury of being able to care. Low income voters in rural areas are worse off because they can't even afford to care about these issues; they need development, primarily, and other basic items to guarantee a relatively comfortable existence. And that's why BN resonated much more with them - being the incumbent, they had the power to offer those things.

That's not a good thing for them to rely on, however. Debt aside, assuming that our country continues the economy policies that it currently follows, the middle class can only grow, and we already know which political side they lean to. At the same time, BN can't afford to make the people poorer; the backlash would be far worse. Relying on rural votes, then, is clearly a losing strategy in the long term.

Malaysians, in short:

Image credit to: strangeherring.wordpress.com